Can a 10 Day Weather Forecast Save Your Life?
We know that an extended weather forecast covering the next ten days can be helpful in our everyday lives. We can plan our leisure time or outside home projects according to that information. Some types of employment, such as road construction or farming, depend upon knowing accurate weather information. Our children’s extra-curricular activities such as outside sports can also be planned better with a 10 day weather forecast. But did you ever consider whether a 10 day forecast could actually save your life? After Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana and the Gulf Coast, it became tragically obvious that perhaps it could.
Just two years ago, scientists could only forecast information about two days ahead of the storm’s track. That time span is now increased to about five days. However, one of the biggest problems when Hurricane Katrina blasted New Orleans and the Gulf Coast was that just the year before, meteorologists had incorrectly predicted the path of Hurricane Ivan. It was believed that Ivan would hit New Orleans and cause great damage and some 600,000 people evacuated. That storm took a last minute detour and the crisis was averted- or at least delayed until the following season. The weather forecast in Louisiana preceding the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina offered signs that the impending weather could be life threatening. As early as three days prior to Katrina’s landfall, experts were predicting that New Orleans would be in its path. In fact, predictions of where the hurricane would come ashore were off by only about 15 miles. Compare that to an average error, when predicted 48 hours in advance, of 160 miles and it becomes obvious that tracking the path of Katrina was precise and early. Because so many saw the predictions regarding Hurricane Ivan fall short just one year earlier, a “crying wolf” attitude cost so many their homes and their lives.
While predicting a hurricane in a ten day forecast is still out of reach, the newest technology is increasing that lead time from 24 to 36 hours to as much as five days of advance warning of the path of a hurricane prior to landfall. New technology is also helping to increase the ability to predict the swell of intensity of a hurricane as it hits land. This can be life saving information.
It is unlikely that Hurricane Katrina will ever be forgotten. The question is: will you let the forecast save your life? Today a five-day forecast may be able to do just that. It may be a very short period of time before a ten day weather forecast can do the same.
Finding The Most Accurate 10 day Weather Forecast
We live in a world where any type of information we want is available literally at our fingertips. We can peruse the history of Guam or the development of the white nosed coatimundi in an instant. We can check the stock market in Japan or order tulips from Holland. But, can we find an accurate 10 day weather forecast? We can, but only if we know the best places to look.
Surprisingly to some, one of the most accurate 10 day weather forecasts that you can find is from your local weatherman. With tools such as Doppler radar and instant connections to the National Weather Service, the 6:00 local news can accurately predict the short range weather with a high degree of certainty- most of the time. What if there is a more accurate, more complete 10 day weather forecast elsewhere? But what if you will be traveling across country or across the world? When you leave the familiarity of home, who do you trust to bring you the best forecast for the next 10 days of weather? With the Internet readily available nearly anywhere you go, thousands of newspapers as well as televised weather channels you can find a ten day weather forecast literally at the tips of your fingers.
When you are searching for an accurate forecast, keep in mind that a complete 10 day forecast should include not only the predicted temperatures and expected precipitation, but also things like expected wind speed and the barometric pressure. These two aspects of the weather are important, because they can contribute significantly to your enjoyment of the day. If the winds are high, or the pressure is unstable, it won’t be nearly as comfortable if you are planning to be outside.
The Internet provides 10 day weather forecasts for nearly any location you could imagine. Often all you need to do is type in the name of the city and click a button and your 10 day weather forecast is at your fingertips. This is the best way to get the most up to date information available.
Although most of us love our technology the newspaper is an accurate and generally very complete source of the 10 day weather forecast. It will usually offer not only local predictions, but also data on some of the largest cities around the world. When you are traveling somewhere unfamiliar, turning to the newspaper is a surefire way to find that forecast.
How Can a 10 Day Weather Forecast Increase Crime Prevention?
The idea of something as simple as a weather forecast affecting the prevention of crime seems preposterous. On the surface, one seems to have nothing at all to do with the other. Looking into the facts, however, may change your opinion. It may cause you to view the 10 day weather forecast in a whole new light.
When it comes to crime prevention, some of the first things people think of are locking your doors, using an alarm system, carrying a whistle or pepper spray, avoiding darkened alleyways or parking lots. While all of these efforts are important in maintaining safety, keeping a close eye on the ten day weather forecast can also help prevent crime.
Studies have shown that there are several different weather conditions that may affect crime. There is empirical evidence that high temperatures, in particular, can contribute to crime, especially violent crimes such as domestic assault, robbery and even murder. Of course, weather is only one of a number of factors that lead to criminal activity, but the link does exist.
In extremely hot weather, as well as ongoing heat waves, tension rises and tempers flare. Emergency rooms are busier and police calls escalate.
When alcohol is added to the equation, the environment ripens for arguments and misunderstandings that can lead to violence.
Police officials can make use of a ten day weather forecast by tracking heat waves and expecting the potential for violent crime to rise during these times.
Patrols can be increased, leading to a higher visibility of police presence, which will help to control the outbreak of violent crime.
According to an article in the March 3, 2005 issue of the Harvard University Gazette, a study in January of that same year conducted by Brian Jacob, an assistant professor, concluded that crime will increase during a heat spell due to a phenomenon known as weather shock.
While the study acknowledged that crime, especially violent crime, will increase during hotter temperatures, it also found that crime rates will actually decrease in the weeks following the inflated temperatures. At the same time, it was also determined that while extreme precipitation will decrease crime rates, the weeks following the severe rain or snow will show an increase in criminal activity.
Since these weather conditions can all be accurately predicted and tracked in a 10 day weather forecast, it follows that crime prevention efforts that take weather patterns into consideration can produce greater results and create a higher degree of public safety.
How Reliable is a 10 Day Weather Forecast?
It seems to be a universal pastime in our lives- debating the weather forecast and whether or not it can be trusted. There are those who believe that their local weatherman can predict the 10 day weather forecast unfailingly and if an error were to rear its ugly head, well obviously it would be an anomaly. There are the others who believe that a 10 day forecast is little more than a coin flip and that there is little to no science to the matter of predicting the weather- particularly in a 10 day forecast or longer. Which side of this familiar argument bears the most weight? Is there scientific evidence backing up the accuracy of a 10 day forecast or is it just guess work? It seems the scientific evidence is available and improving at a consistent rate.
Due to the constant improvement of computers, the precision of weather forecasts has increased, with the most increase in accuracy in the 1 to 5 day forecast range. Forecasting is based on the laws of physics and uses prediction models based on a numerical system. These numerical prediction models can forecast large high and low barometric air pressure systems as they develop and move. These systems determine the day to day weather changes in middle and high latitude areas. Therefore, predicting the pressure systems accurately leads to predicting weather changes accurately. While the 1 to 5 day range of forecasting is still the most accurate time span, the 10 day forecast is following close behind in reliability.
The methods of statistics and their interpretation used to predict the weather are broadening the scope and the correctness of the previous models used. Today’s satellites offer continuous observations, which also improve the calculations used in forecasting.
These methods are most accurate in a 1 to 5 day weather forecast, but are still considered quite capable of making satisfactory predictions for up to 10 to 14 days, particularly the first 10 days of the month. The qualities of mean temperatures and amount of expected precipitation are the two aspects of weather that can be forecasted at a 10 day range with the most accuracy.
By improving the global scope of observation, through the use of satellites, aircraft and ocean buoys, the data used to improve the physics models and other theoretical approaches are also improving the computations used in the models. When this higher quality of data is combined with the continuing improvement in the speed and memory capacities of computers, the accuracy of a 10 day forecast will only continue to improve. Science and technology is storming ahead at a rate that is practically immeasurable and all the many ways society makes use of that exponential growth are continually improving and changing as well. Weather forecasting, which 50 years ago was basically guesswork and hunches, is solidly based in science and is now more accurate than ever.
Ten Day Weather Forecasts and the Olympic Games
It can be surprising how something that seems to be an ordinary, even dull, part of everyday life can impact something as global as the Olympic Games. What about the ten day weather forecast? While we may think that a 10 day weather forecast is only applicable to our upcoming golf tournament, the truth is the 10 day forecast can command worldwide attention when it concerns the outdoor competitions of the Olympics.
The next summer Olympics will be held in Beijing, China. Beijing typically has a very dry climate, but August, when the games will be held in 2008, is China’s rainy season. What effect could the rain have on the games? A ten day weather forecast would have the ability to accurately predict whether the unwelcome downpours are expected during the global event, but China’s Meteorological Association plans to make sure we don’t have to rely on that customary information
Zheng Guoguang, who heads the group, announced that China has plans to attempt to control the weather for the Summer Olympics, 2008. China plans to use rockets that are filled with chemicals to seed the clouds and cause a downpour before the opening ceremonies of the game. Chinese officials are hoping that by artificially seeding the clouds in the days just before the start of the Olympics on August 8, 2009, it will offset any prospect of rain during the games.
Because Beijing is typically such a dry area, the Chinese are experienced at shooting the chemically enhanced rockets into the cloud cover in order to bring the onset of a rain shower. Can they do this for the 2008 Olympics? By closely following the ten day forecast during the end of July and beginning days of August, 2008, it is possible that the Chinese Meteorological Association could gain some insight into when they might want or need to launch their rockets.
Of course, visitors to the Olympic Games in Beijing will also be watching the 10 day weather forecast, although it is unlikely that guests to the Games will be launching any rain producing chemicals into the skies. Rather, the civilians will probably be settling for some sunscreen and hats if the forecast is good or some raincoats and umbrellas if that 10 day forecast calls for rain in spite of the Chinese Meteorological Association’s plans to the contrary. Either way, the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, China proves to be an exciting and memorable event.
The Farmer’s Almanac—The First 10 Day Weather Forecast
I wonder if kids still learn about The Farmer’s Almanac when they are little. I remember it. It had that yellow cover and a picture of some flowers or something like that. My grandma and grandpa always had one. It was strange how often it seemed to be right about the weather ahead. When I was a young girl everyone started getting TV sets that used color instead of the old black and white ones. I think that is probably when the television weatherman began to achieve hero status when he was on a good streak, only to be ostracized when unexpected rain showed up on the weekend. Forecasting the weather has always seemed to be a cross between something magical, luck, and some really smart guys figuring it out in the back of the studio according to some secret process that included rolling dice. A 10 day weather forecast today is obtained in a far more scientific manner these days. I wonder if The Farmer’s Almanac—the first 10 day weather forecaster—still gets spotted by children at Grandma’s house.
The Farmer’s Almanac was first edited by Robert B. Thomas in 1792. George Washington was the president and the first year’s circulation was 3000. The Farmer’s Almanac was considered the most accurate of the many almanacs that were available at that time. Robert Thomas remained the editor for over 50 years. Despite my sentimental memories of The Farmer’s Almanac leading me to think it was a thing of the past, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has not missed a year of publication since it began. From the beginning days of our country to the beginning of the 21st century, this is one weather forecaster that has no qualms about predicting weather far beyond the scope of our current ten day weather forecast. It is said that The Old Farmer’s Almanac has an accuracy rate of 80 percent. In fact the revered magazine was even suspected of supply energy to the enemy back in 1942 when a German spy was captured in New York with a copy of the tome tucked into his pocket.
While our technology-derived 10 day forecast may not have the colorful history of The Old Farmer’s Almanac, nor its 80 percent accuracy rate, it can still give us a reasonable accurate idea of what the weather over the next several days is expected to be like. I don’t know if the video-enraptured youth of the 21st century will every be as enamored of The Old Farmer’s Almanac as I was, they will have the benefit of amazing scientific advances and technological wonders to provide a 10 day weather forecast to plan the days ahead.
Understanding the History of the 10 Day Weather Forecast
Weather forecasting has been around about as long as weather. It just gets a little more sophisticated along the way. About 50 years ago, weather forecasting was considered more of an art or a little bit of fancy guesswork than a science. In the 1960s, school children learned about weather balloons and land based observation stations. It seemed so amazing that aircraft was being used to predict the weather.
Back then it was called predicting. Kind of like a fortune teller would predict your future. Now we have satellites and computers that simulate the atmosphere, scans that can view the inside of a hurricane and a plethora of weather forecasting equipment that scientists build and use to better understand our world and somehow shape it to suit our needs.
We can and do regularly receive a scientific 10 day weather forecast right in our homes, on our televisions and computer screens.
The history of weather forecasting could be said to go back to the days of Aristotle or before, some say much earlier than then. Most of this forecasting was based on lore and fables and simple powers of observation. Astronomers studied the stars in a seemingly lofty vocation in life. It is likely that since the beginnings of man, someone decided they needed to control and understand even the weather.
A more recent age of weather forecasting began in 1837 with the advent of the telegraph. For the first time, men had the capability of communicating long distances in real time without a delay. Not long after, men would transmit the weather information from the West, and the new world to the East and those back at home. This would then allow the Easterner’s to assume what the weather would be in days to come.
As time went on, the 20th century gave way to increasingly capable and precise equipment that could capture and produce and interpret various forms of data about various aspects of the weather until a reasonably certain forecast could be obtained. Weather balloons and aircraft gave way to satellites and radar as tools to forecast the weather. Here in the early 21st century, we can comfortably trust a 10 day weather forecast.
It doesn’t seem extraordinary to most of us when we switch on the television or the internet and are provided with a weather forecast for the next ten days. In fact, not only do we expect it, we expect it to be accurate. In fact, it often seems as though we also expect to be able to control it as well.
Using a Ten Day Weather Forecast to Plan Your Vacation
Almost certainly one of the most common uses for a 10 day weather forecast is for planning a vacation. While most of us go through our day to day lives accepting the weather without much more than a passing complaint, when we are planning a vacation, the weather becomes incredibly important. If we are fortunate enough to choose when we take our vacation without a lot of advance notice, the 10 day weather forecast can be just the tool we need to increase the odds of weather that suits your plans.
If we are off to Denver to go skiing, we can keep an eye on the 10 day weather forecast and take off right after a fresh snowfall for ideal conditions. Conversely, if our vacation plans involve a beach and a tan, we will want to keep an eye on that 10 day weather forecast a stretch of clear skies, hot weather and loads of sunshine.
A ten day weather forecast is obtained by using weather data such as temperatures, cloud cover, precipitation and barometric pressure. Warm fronts and cold fronts are tracked and followed; when they collide, storms can be expected. Historical data plays a part in a 10 day weather forecast. While no forecast can be guaranteed to be 100% accurate, with the advances that have been made in meteorological data collecting the 10 day forecast is accurate enough to depend on and feel comfortable trusting in it.
Another factor that figures into the trusting of a ten day weather forecast is the consistency of a particular meteorologist. This preference is based on different factors, but accuracy, especially over a 10 day period definitely plays a strong role in that preference. National weathermen, such as Al Roker and Willard Scott gain such immense popularity based on their personalities, but they also have the daunting task of forecasting weather for the entire nation. Their information must be up to date and accurate. We need to know that we can rely upon a ten day forecast as we plan our outdoor activities.
While we cannot always pick our vacation times on short notice, we can utilize the 10 day weather forecast for our plans for a long weekend or for determining if we need to order tents or move indoors for that summer wedding. So, when you want to know what kind of weather is expected for that fishing trip or family barbeque next weekend, a 10 day weather forecast could be just what you are looking for.
What Are the Benefits of a 10 Day Weather Forecast?
There can be little doubt that the 10 day weather forecast can provide a lot of benefits. We can plan our outdoor recreation—things like biking, camping, hiking and rock climbing—and our chores—like gardening, mowing the lawn and painting the garage—around a 10 day forecast. Be being able to plan ahead, we can optimize our time in the great outdoors, balancing what we need to do with what we love to do.
It seems unlikely though that the only benefits of a 10 day weather forecast are for fun and recreation and a few household chores. With the astronomical costs of all things that measure the astronomical world, surely there are larger purposes for this type of weather news.
One of the major reasons the 10 day weather forecast was created is to give those who buy and sell energy like natural gas and electricity, the energy traders, the opportunity to decide what the new term demand for heating and cooling will be so that they can determine the movement in energy commodities, thereby profiting from the transfer of these commodities. If the average consumer can learn to understand and use the 10 day weather forecast properly, he or she can save on natural gas and electricity, both in usage and in costs.
Another very important use of 10 day weather forecasts is predicting weather patterns such as potential frost and freezing in specialty crop growing areas of the country. In California, for example, a sudden drop to below freezing temperatures can cause severe damage to oranges and avocados. Since these large crops are harvested only once a year, all attempts must be made to protect crops and avoid freezing. Sometimes crops can be sprayed with hot water in order to prevent their temperatures from falling below freezing. If the freeze is unseasonably close to harvest time, there could be an early harvest of at least a partial crop before a damaging frost.
The military makes definite use of a 10 day forecast when the course of a battle is determined. Decisions such as when to advance or retreat can be influenced by expected weather changes in elements such as wind speed, precipitation and temperature.
So although we do need to seriously consider our recreational activities and our home improvement and maintenance projects, there are some very large scale, very serious, benefits from having a 10 day weather forecast.
Why Is A 10 Day Weather Forecast Important
Planning a vacation? Moving to a new home? Doing some landscaping? There are many reasons why a 10 day weather forecast is important. Odds are good that there are reasons it could be important to you that you haven’t even thought of yet.
10 day weather reports are extremely important to firefighters. By examining the precipitation expected for the next 10 days, along with the potential for lightning strikes, firefighters that work with forest fires can better predict where the potentially most dangerous areas are at. This enables them to keep a closer watch on these areas as well as notifying homeowners, businesses and the general public of an impending dangerously dry area or pattern of weather. Property, forests and lives can be saved with such advanced information.
Boats, ships and sailing vessels have a vital need for a 10 day weather forecast. Not knowing what weather is expected can be potentially life threatening. High winds, severe thunderstorms, and lightning- these are all weather situations that can be dangerous to anyone on a body of water. By utilizing a 10 day weather forecast, boating, sailing and even cruising can be made much safer for the water enthusiast.
Farmers rely on the weather and need to know when rain is expected and when dry periods are expected. When crops are sprayed with pesticides, for example, it is important that the weather stay dry for the dry sprays to be effective in killing weeds and pests. Similarly, certain insects or diseases are more likely before, after or during specific types of weather. Apple growers, for example, know that the relationship between temperature, rain, and the wetness of the leaves can increase the possibility of apple scab infection.
Another field that relies heavily on upcoming weather, such as that found in a 10 day weather forecast is the trucking industry. From transporting fresh foods to delivering your Christmas packages, the trucking industry can be sorely delayed by unexpected bad weather. Often, a driver can plan an alternative route in order to avoid heavy snow or dangerously cold temperatures that can affect engine performance, but only if he is aware of the upcoming weather. When transporting from one coast to the other, and then navigating the return trip, a 10 day weather forecast can be invaluable both to the trucker, the wholesaler and the retailers involved in marketing and ultimately to you, the consumer.
Of course this is just the barest beginning of a list of occupations that need to rely upon weather information in general, and a 10 day forecast in particular in order to function at their best. Of course, the more familiar reasons we rely on a 10 day forecast- vacations, moving, lawn and yard care – are no less important in our everyday lives. The 10 day weather forecast has been an extremely useful advance in the world of weather forecasting.